Bloomberg has just published its list of the 15 most miserable economies in the world for 2015.
Misery is measured as the sum of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate.
That measure dates back to the era of 1970s stagflation. It debatably implies that an inflationary recession is more miserable than a deflationary one. In my book, recessions are painful – full stop.
All readers should take Bloomberg's rankings with a grain of salt for another reason too – measurement issues.
Ignoring these qualifications, Venezuela is in a class of its own with a score of over 80. Inflation is massive. Global forecasting firm Trading Economics puts its current unemployment rate at (much reduced) 5.5%.
Argentina makes second slot with a score of over 30. Again, the prime cause is inflation. Trading Economics puts its unemployment rate at 6.9%.
South Africa's score is fractionally under 30, which is narrowly behind Argentina, but its misery comes from a destabilising unemployment rate which Trading Economics puts at 24%. Inflation is under 5%.
War-torn Ukraine takes fourth slot with a score over 25. Trading Economics' latest figures put the unemployment rate at 8.9% and the core inflation rate at 22.8%. But the greater misery will surely be from the fighting.
Four of the five deficit-ridden European "PIIGS" remain in a miserable state. The scores for Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain put them in 10th, 11th, 5th and 6th-worst position respectively. The fifth in this group, Ireland, has responded impressively to its 2008 difficulties. It is 'only' 16th most miserable on Bloomberg's measure.
On the OECD latest forecasts for 2015, the unemployment rates in Greece and Spain will be horrendous, at 25% and 23% respectively. Portugal, Italy and Ireland will be seriously high at 12.8%, 12.3% and 10.5% respectively.
The 2015 inflation rate for the PIIGS is a different story entirely. The OECD's forecasts for these five countries range from 0.5% (Ireland) down to minus 0.7% (Greece).
Personally, I would weight the unemployment rate much more heavily in a misery index than the inflation rate, notwithstanding the importance of price stability. But income per capita surely matters too. Better to be unemployed in a rich household or nation than in a poor one.
But greater prosperity makes it easier to ride through recessions (or a Christchurch earthquake). The New Zealand Initiative will shortly be publishing a report unashamedly making the case for a focus on economic growth.
Growth can ease misery
6 March, 2015