If you have been scanning the press over the past week or so you may have come across an opinion piece by Michael Pascoe, prophesying doom for the New Zealand dairy industry and the Kiwi economy in general.

Pascoe has taken a look at the similarity between iron ore and dairy prices since 2013 - both have more or less halved in value over the period - and concluded that there is a hard landing in store for New Zealand.

At one level of analysis, he does have a point.

Australia rode the peaks of the post-global financial crisis hard commodity boom as China injected huge amounts of stimulus into its economy, with the resulting infrastructure and construction boom lifting iron ore prices to a peak of US$187 a tonne in 2011.

Since then it has been a one-way trade downwards as the global economy expanded at a slower pace than expected, and major stimulus programmes were pared back. As a result, iron ore recently traded at US$73 (NZ$93) a tonne, near a five-year low.

This weakness in a major commodity export has had a significant impact on the Australian economy. The most recent gross domestic product figures show the economy grew by just 0.3 per cent in the December quarter, equating to an annualised rate of 1.2 per cent. In response the Reserve Bank of Australia has been easing interest rates, which have in turn have weighed on the aussie dollar.

From Pascoe's perspective, New Zealand and its heavy reliance on dairy exports, is staring at a similar fate. In his view, already depressed dairy prices are likely to fall further as more global suppliers come on line and major consumers like China diversify their supply. Only the commodity slump is going to hit New Zealand much harder since the economy is smaller and less developed than Australia's, with the strength of the currency amplifying the blow.

His conclusion is that "uppity Kiwis feeling boastful about their dollar approaching parity with the mighty aussie might do well to stick to rugby for their kicks. Their China-driven boom is coming to an end as quickly as Australia's".

Strong words indeed.

However, some of the recent economic data and analyses suggests Pascoe's dire prognostications are probably more to do with Australia's economic malaise than New Zealand's.

First, most dairy farmers in New Zealand seem to be fairly well-positioned to absorb price declines over the past year or so thanks to record prices in the previous cycle, which are still trickling through as payments. These gains have, for the most part, been used to shore up farm balance sheets. Although some marginal producers may be over-extended, the sector is widely viewed as sound enough to withstand one season of poor returns. Even dire ones, like Fonterra's recent farmgate forecast of NZ$4.70 per kilogram of milk solids, down from the NZ$8.50 mark of last season.

Second, some of the factors that resulted in the collapse of dairy prices in 2014 are expected to start working their way through the market in the second half of 2015, such as the return of Chinese buyers as stockpiles wind down. Critically, these shifts are likely to occur within New Zealand farmers' one-year financial comfort zone. Rabobank's latest dairy sector report expects prices to start climbing in earnest from mid-year onwards.

There are also some early signs that dairy has bottomed out, with the last two Global Dairy Trade auctions recording increases of 2.4 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively. The average winning price at the latest fortnightly sale was US$2709 a tonne, up from the five year low of US$2513 it hit in early December.

Last, Pascoe's nervous observations of the kiwi's gain on the aussie dollar ignores the fact that both currencies have declined over the past 12-months relative to the greenback. It is only that the Australian currency has lost more ground than New Zealand's, a decline of 9.8 per cent compared with 7 per cent.

Certainly, there is a risk that the scenario outlined above won't play out so neatly. The closure of the Russian market to food imports continues to weigh on the market, and the removal of milk quotas (and the super levy charge for over-production) is likely to boost European exports. But most bank economists in New Zealand, as well as Treasury and the Reserve Bank, remain reasonably upbeat about the prospects for dairy and the trends supporting it over the medium term.

Outside of the dairy sector, the New Zealand economy looks fairly robust, with ANZ's most recent business confidence survey showing that firms were still upbeat about their near term prospects because of chipper consumer spending, high construction activity and robust inbound migration.

The low inflation environment and stable interests provide further tailwinds.

Of course, any major shift in the still volatile global economy could throw a spanner in the works, and a high Australian dollar certainly places additional strain on those businesses who export extensively across the ditch. Also of concern is over-reliance on one major export market.

But within the probable set of outcomes it is not quite time to panic. The risks posed to the New Zealand economy are significantly less dire than Pascoe suggests, and New Zealanders would be no worse off than anyone else if the global economy imploded - including Australia.

Pascoe may have turned sour on New Zealand economy, but from this side of the Tasman there is no reason to suggest that the country's rivers of white gold are going to curdle anytime soon.