It is hard to be funny when you are an economist.
Thankfully, we have the Reserve Bank. It is in rude form.
Last Friday, the Reserve Bank published a research paper on interest rates and wealth distribution. It concluded: “We find that a 50 basis point reduction in the OCR [the interest rate] leads to a more equal distribution of wealth in the economy.”
Interesting, to be sure. Striking, even. But funny?
Well, the Reserve Bank’s analysis of how interest rates affect wealth distribution did not include asset prices. I am not making this up. There was no room in this paper for the elephant.
And the Bank did not exactly hide this important detail. No, it put the punch line the method up front in “Key findings” on page two. Kudos for transparency, at least.
Jenny Ruth at BusinessDesk asks a very good question: Is it possible to look at the impact on wealth distribution of cutting interest rates without looking at what happened to asset prices?
And can you do it without provoking laughter?
Comedy really is all about timing. House prices leapt by an astonishing 30% last year as the Reserve Bank printed more than $60 billion. So what better time to leave asset prices out of your analysis of wealth? Renters must love the irony. Those are tears of laughter on their faces, right?
But perhaps the Reserve Bank is playing 4D chess. With interest rates set to rise, presumably the Bank will update its paper to include asset prices. Having previously found lower interest rates improve wealth distribution, the updated paper will conclude higher interest rates improve wealth distribution.
It is good the Reserve Bank is looking at all drivers of wealth distribution. Just don’t overreach with the conclusions. Measuring wealth without assets is like calculating the cost of car ownership from the price of wheel nuts. All you've got is nuts.
The Reserve Bank’s whitterings reminds me of a seminar I once attended in graduate school. Sitting near me was a Chicago economist who was distinctly unimpressed. In his typical way, he raised his hand and told the poor lecturer, “I feel like I went to a John Wayne movie and The Duke never showed.”
The one without the asset prices
11 February, 2022