When the opposition released its report on Monday into the inquiry of the so-called manufacturing crisis, it was hard not to be underwhelmed.
Manufacturing: The New Consensus argues that New Zealand manufacturing is in a parlous state and that several key government interventions are required to help the sector. The report calls itself ‘a blueprint for better jobs and higher wages’, but it is difficult to see how it would contribute to either. Moreover, because of the inquiry’s narrow focus, the report does not consider how policy changes aimed at manufacturing might detrimentally affect other sectors of the economy, or New Zealand consumers.
The report was always going to be an overtly political document. The premise of the inquiry was that the manufacturing crisis had cost 40,000 jobs in the sector (coincidentally) since National took power in 2008. This was heavily misleading, as I pointed out in the National Business Review some months ago. There was a precipitous loss of jobs during the global financial crisis in 2008–09, but since then it has been relatively stable. In fact, industry employment numbers have been rising recently.
So what are the main recommendations of the report? Well, most are sufficiently fluffy and vague so that reasonable people could disagree over what they mean or what policies might follow. Some are just a rehash of past polices or ideas of questionable merit.
For example, the first recommendation is ‘a fair and less volatile exchange rate’. What does that even mean? And fair for whom? Exporters or importers? Customers or employees in manufacturing export industries?
There is the usual raft of suggestions for government procurement favouring local producers, using the tax system to encourage productive investment, better New Zealand Trade and Enterprise (NZTE) involvement, and the perennial issue of R&D tax credits – a policy that has barely ever yielded a positive relationship to GDP in any country in the world.
Along with this are some curious recommendations, such as encouraging FDI ‘consistent with strategic direction of New Zealand exports and manufacturing’ and establishing the obligatory taskforce of government, local government, business and unions.
Among the report’s omissions were New Zealand’s squeezed tradables sector, massive growth in non-tradables, and the role of government spending in keeping the dollar high.
All in all, this looks like a purely political document.
Just what is a fair exchange rate?
21 June, 2013