New Zealanders have long seen university as the best educational route to the good life. Trades and industry training is seen as a second-best option.
That attitude has always been based more on prejudice than reality. Skilled tradies are paid well and many go on to start lucrative businesses of their own.
It is time for a serious re-think of the way young people are prepared for the choices they face when they leave school.
Generative AI is likely to limit entry-level work in the knowledge economy in the near future. While there is little hard evidence that this is happening just yet, students choosing degree study today are making a long-term bet.
Expected incomes for graduates vary markedly with their field of study. Law, medicine and engineering continue to attract high salaries. But law and medicine may be amongst the professions hardest hit by AI in coming years.
Bachelors of Arts (BAs) account for about a third of all undergraduate degrees. But income premiums for BAs are very modest.
Some students study for degrees out of pure interest. But many have likely undertaken degree studies with unrealistic expectations of the employment and salary prospects awaiting them when they graduate.
There are many attractive alternatives to university. Apprenticeships in electrical engineering, automotive industries and building and construction all lead to employment, yielding higher average salaries than a BA does five years after completion.
Apprentices are paid a modest wage while they complete their qualifications. Employers often foot the bill for their tertiary fees. Meanwhile, many university students struggle to make ends meet and most graduate with substantial debt.
Trade and industry occupations may also be less vulnerable to AI encroachment than many professions requiring university degrees. But most schools share the kiwi prejudice that university is a more desirable option.
School students need clear information about the many pathways to employment. That would help them make informed decisions about subject choices and post-school study. But the relevant information is distributed across multiple government websites. It is hardly accessible to an average fifteen-year-old.
Simple infographics hosted on the Ministry of Education website would help. These could show qualifications requirements, market demand, average salary and career development prospects for a wide variety of occupations. Career counsellors could help students use them to make choices with open eyes.
University remains a good option for many, but young people need to know the alternatives.