A world trade policy for grown-ups

Dr Oliver Hartwich
Insights Newsletter
11 April, 2025

There is something tragic about watching the United States deliberately harm itself – especially when the damage spills over to everyone else.

President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ trade tariffs are a disaster for America and the world. In the name of “fairness” and “balancing trade,” the United States is slapping double-digit tariffs on all imports (except from Russia, Belarus, North Korea and Cuba!).

This week, the administration paused most of them for 90 days – though it raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 125 percent.

The logic? If America buys more from a country than it sells to it, that must be unfair. So, tax the imports to even things out.

But that is not how trade works. It has never been.

Countries run trade deficits and surpluses with each other for many reasons. Some make certain products more efficiently. Others consume more than they produce. And some just have a taste for specific goods – like Scottish whisky, Korean phones and Japanese cars.

Trying to equalise every trade relationship through tariffs is like trying to make every household earn exactly what it spends at each shop. It is nonsense. Worse, it is damaging.

Maurice Obstfeld, a former IMF Chief Economist, recently pointed out that these tariffs will hit Americans hardest – and they still might, if reintroduced after the 90-day pause. The Trump administration is taxing imports in precisely the areas in which the US economy gains the most – like cheap inputs for manufacturing or products no longer made domestically.

The result will be higher prices, less choice and less prosperity. It is economic self-sabotage dressed up as patriotism.

The temporary suspension is a welcome reprieve. Markets rallied, and businesses breathed a sigh of relief. But the underlying strategy has not changed – and neither has the threat. The administration’s decision to hike tariffs on Chinese imports to punitive levels shows that this trade war is far from over.

Tariffs, especially those set under emergency powers, also create a climate of uncertainty. Businesses struggle to plan when trade policy changes randomly. Investment slows. Supply chains are disrupted. Jobs are lost. And for what? A dogmatic crusade against trade balances that do not need fixing in the first place.

But here is the good news: the rest of the world does not have to follow America’s lead.

Instead of retaliating, other countries should do the opposite. They should remove their own remaining trade barriers, open their economies further and deepen their trade ties with each other.

That would send two messages: first, that the world will not be dragged into a 1930s-style trade war; second, that free trade still has adult defenders willing to stand up for it.

Let the United States isolate itself behind tariff walls. It is free to do so, damaging as it is.

But the rest of us should double down on openness, cooperation and economic common sense.

We cannot stop America’s self-harm – paused though it may be. But we can choose not to copy it.

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