Media release: New Zealand risks losing its main warships within a decade
Wellington (Tuesday, 14 July 2026) – New Zealand's two main warships will reach the end of their working lives within about a decade, and Cabinet must decide by 2027 what should replace them. The choice will shape the country's ability to help keep its trade routes open for a generation.
A new research note, Adrift: A Trading Nation, an Ageing Navy and the 2027 Frigate Decision, by Major General (Retired) John Howard, a Senior Fellow at the Initiative, argues the decision deserves more scrutiny than it has had.
Almost everything New Zealand sells and buys travels by ship. About 99 percent of its trade, measured by volume, moves by sea, from dairy and meat to fuel and machinery.
New Zealand is also responsible for one of the world's largest stretches of ocean, about 4.1 million square kilometres, or 15 times its land area.
If the decision on the frigates is delayed, or the wrong capability is chosen, New Zealand could spend years without a warship able to operate in contested waters alongside its allies, and the skills, systems and experience behind that capability would take a generation to rebuild.
"The window for action is very narrow, and it is closing fast," Howard says. "Strategy must come first. Cabinet should be clear about what it needs the Navy to achieve before it selects a ship."
For Howard, this is about more than a ship. "We are a serious maritime nation," he says. "What we decide here will show whether we intend to stay one."
The research note Adrift: A Trading Nation, an Ageing Navy and the 2027 Frigate Decision is available at www.nzinitiative.org.nz.
ENDS