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When the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates on 11 June, marking its first increase since 2023, the news was unwelcome across the eurozone. It was especially unwelcome in Germany. Read more
When Victoria University of Wellington’s great little prediction market, iPredict, announced that it would be shutting down back in 2015, it had a couple hundred thousand dollars of traders’ deposited funds in the bank. It was a very small, very limited, academic enterprise. Read more
In this episode, Oliver talks with Eric about Budget 2026, which brings the forecast surplus forward a year but rests on a series of lucky breaks, from oil prices falling to fiscal discipline surviving the election and coalition negotiations. They weigh what is driving spending well above 2019 levels, the case for superannuation reform, council incentives to go for growth, the shrinking public service, and why Treasury's tobacco and alcohol excise forecasts keep going wrong. Read more
If the country sees a few lucky breaks, Budget 2026 shows a return to surplus in 2029. The period of structural deficits will have lasted almost a decade. Read more
This is The New Zealand Initiative’s 2026 Prescription for Prosperity. Since 2017, the Initiative has prepared a briefing for the incoming government. Read more
Wellington (Wednesday, 27 May 2026) – New Zealand can be a much more prosperous country, and the policy choices needed to get us there are well within reach, says The New Zealand Initiative’s Executive Director, Dr Oliver Hartwich. The Initiative today released Prescription for Prosperity 2026, its fourth briefing to an incoming government. Read more
1. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY 1.1 This submission on the Commerce (Commerce Commission Reform) Amendment Bill (the Bill) is made by The New Zealand Initiative (the Initiative), a Wellington-based think tank supported primarily by major New Zealand businesses. Read more
With energy prices spiking, an old idea has gathered fresh momentum: break up the big electricity companies. New Zealand First put the proposal on its agenda at the party’s State of the Nation address, calling for the four gentailers, companies that both generate and retail power, to be split apart. Read more
Heather du Plessis-Allan discussed Dr Bryce Wilkinson's NZ Herald article on Newstalk ZB, drawing on his analysis of the 1970s oil shocks as a cautionary lesson for today's politicians. Dr Wilkinson argues that the government should resist pressure to intervene through price controls, subsidies, or fuel tax cuts, and instead rely on price signals and targeted income relief for the most vulnerable, while leaving risky energy investments to private capital. Read more
Brent crude hit $112 a barrel last Friday. Goldman Sachs says it could reach $147 if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed; the futures market predicts it will be $86 in six months. Read more