Auckland is deciding where the next generation of homes will go. Plan Change 120 is a proposal to rewrite the city’s planning rules. It would concentrate new housing near train stations and town centres. Further submissions open later this month. 

The outcome will shape whether the next generation can afford to live in the city where they grew up. 

Opponents say there is no point zoning for more homes unless the pipes and roads are already in place. Councillors Christine Fletcher and Troy Churton made this case in the NZ Herald. It sounds responsible. 

But we can test this claim. Land prices tell us what is actually scarce. 

Think about two paddocks at Auckland’s edge. One sits just inside the urban boundary, the other just outside. Same soil, same weather, same distance from town. The only real difference is that one has permission to become housing and the other does not. 

If permission were abundant, developers would not pay much more for the urban section. They could always go next door. So, any large gap between the two prices tells us that permission itself is scarce. 

What do the numbers show? 

Te Waihanga, the government’s infrastructure agency, found that Auckland’s urban land sells for nearly $1,300 per square metre more than rural land nearby. On a standard 600 square metre section, that premium adds up to roughly $780,000.  

To be clear, the money is not for better soil or a nicer view. That is what it costs to get permission to build in Auckland.

Councillors can claim that the city has zoned enough land for housing. Prices suggest otherwise. 

Even if you accept that infrastructure matters, pulling back permission now does not keep options open. It forecloses them. 

Getting permission back later means another plan change, more delays, more years of hearings and appeals. Developers see the uncertainty and hold back today. Fewer homes get built. Prices stay higher than they need to be. 

And the premise that Auckland lacks infrastructure is outdated anyway. The City Rail Link opens later this year. A massive new wastewater tunnel is nearly finished. Both will serve exactly the areas where Plan Change 120 focuses on growth. 

Plans should keep options open. Consents should confirm a site is ready, not reopen the question of whether homes belong there at all. 

When someone wants to build homes, the default answer should be yes.  

Auckland does not need to rediscover scarcity dressed up as prudence.