New Zealand has plenty of reasons for optimism. In a world gripped by anxiety, the country stands at the edge of several extraordinary opportunities. The question is whether New Zealand will seize them.

Few countries are as well placed as New Zealand to benefit from geothermal power. Few can match its potential in supercritical geothermal energy. If New Zealand exploits this advantage, it could move from energy adequacy to energy abundance.

Cheap, reliable, plentiful energy is the master resource behind nearly every form of prosperity. It powers homes, factories, data centres, transport and the innovations that make all the rest possible. A society with abundant energy can afford to be cleaner and more resilient.

Then there is capital. Political and economic instability in the United States and Europe is bad news in many ways, but it also creates openings for countries that remain stable, lawful, and attractive to investors.

Right now, billions of dollars linked to investor-class visas are looking for productive homes. New Zealand is rightly welcoming that capital. But putting it to work requires easing regulatory burdens.

The same is true of land use. However incomplete the current reforms may be, the government is at least pushing in the direction of growth.

Land use rules can either enable a country to adapt, build and expand, or they can lock it into stagnation. A society that makes it easier to build houses, labs, factories and energy projects is a society that makes room for the future.

Closed societies try to force the future into outdated rules. Open societies reform their rules to accommodate the future. New Zealand has shown, in at least one striking case, that regulation need not be the enemy of progress. The country built a functioning regime for rocket launches with remarkable speed.

Initially, it relied on NASA authorisations while it developed its own regulatory environment. If the mindset were applied more broadly, it could become a serious home for frontier industries.

New Zealand’s success is not guaranteed. There are plenty of voices arguing for stasis, degrowth and zero-sum thinking. The public sector often frustrates initiative rather than enabling it.

Opportunities do not become achievements on their own. They must be recognised and acted upon.

Rational optimism is not wishful thinking. It is the discipline of seeing genuine possibilities and having the courage to pursue them.

Join Dr Marian Tupy for his Wellington based public lecture, Why the future is more abundant than you think, from 5:00pm Thursday, 19 March 2026.