The government proudly announced this week that the percentage of students leaving school with minimum qualifications needed for a good life (NCEA Level 2) rose from two-thirds (67 per cent) in 2008, to over three-quarters (77 per cent) last year.

Even more positively, the percentage of Māori students leaving school with NCEA Level 2 has increased from 44 to 59 per cent.

And Pasifika are catching up fast; whereas in 2008 only just over one-half (55 per cent) left school with NCEA Level 2, this figure rose to nearly three-quarters (72 per cent) in 2013.

All fantastic news, right?

Yet, contrasting this news, figures from the last two rounds of the Programme for International Student Assessment (Pisa) of 15-year-olds reveal some puzzling stories that indicate qualifications and skills do not necessarily align.

The Pisa study categorises students into ability levels. For the purpose of comparison with NCEA Level 2, let’s look at the proportion of students who achieve level 2 or above in Pisa. Students performing below that level struggle with the subject and are likely to be deficient in skills needed for work or further study.

To start with Māori, the percentage achieving level 2 or above in Pisa declined from 73 to 62 per cent for maths, 78 to 75 per cent for science, and 76 to 73 per cent for reading. Whether these changes over time are statistically significant is yet to be analysed, but it is safe to say that the proportion of young Māori students gaining the minimum skills in the core areas of education certainly has not improved since 2009.

While more young Māori are gaining the qualifications they need to participate in the economy, this has not been accompanied by an increase in basic skills.

Yet at the same time, a higher percentage of Māori seem to have the minimum literacy requirements in maths, science and reading than are gaining school-leaving qualifications. Recall that while only 59 per cent of Māori are leaving school with NCEA Level 2, a higher percentage are achieving basic skills in mathematics (62 per cent), science (75 per cent) and reading (73 per cent). It seems that the rise in the percentage of young Māori achieving basic qualifications is getting closer to reflecting actual ability levels.  

So how about Pasifika? The percentage achieving level 2 or above declined for mathematics between 2009 (60 per cent) and 2012 (54 per cent) and stayed relatively stable for science (62 per cent) and reading (66 per cent). The surge in Pasifika students leaving school with qualifications from 55 to 72 per cent is great news but Pisa would suggest that this is not reflected by an increase in basic skills.

Young Māori seem to have greater skills than their qualifications would suggest, and young Pasifika seem to be getting qualifications without commensurate basic skill levels. While it is tempting to take headline figures at face value, it is important to cross reference statistics to get a full picture of what is really happening in education.