After what have been a turbulent few weeks for the Australian Prime Minister, the isolated chirps that Abbott should resign have reached a united cacophony after the Queensland election last weekend. In fact, on Wednesday, iPredict was trading at a 75 percent probability that Abbott departs as leader by July.
 
Reflecting on the Queensland defeat, Abbott mused “the lessons are not to give up on reform, but to make sure that everything you propose is fully explained and well justified.”
 
The lines could have been taken straight from the John Key playbook on how to bring about successful reform. And in fact, the Initiative’s own Dr Oliver Hartwich has recently been presenting his paper on the Key government reforms, Quiet Achievers: The New Zealand Path to Reform, to Australian audiences.
 
The difference, though, is that Key is not trying to keep the sailors in line as well as steer the ship at the same time. Managing internal and external dissent is the real challenge for Abbott.
 
In his address to the National Press Club this week – which many commentators saw as Abbott’s final opportunity to plead his case – it was confirmed that Abbott’s signature Paid Parental Leave Scheme in its current form will be scrapped.
 
Internally, this move (as much as any move could at this stage) may appease Abbott’s dissenters within the Coalition, many of whom questioned its affordability and focus.
 
Abbott has instead announced a greater focus on childcare as a means of encouraging female labour force participation, and promoting “good economic policy as well as fairer family policy”.
 
While no family policy package has been finalised, the reason given for this turnaround has been tight government budget constraints, as well as a proclaimed desire to shift priorities towards female labour force participation.
 
But if Abbott was trying to emulate Key-style reform, he will need to get the public on board with whatever childcare package he announces too. That will be no small feat.
 
In fact, an Essential Media Communications survey finds that as of yesterday, 72 percent of respondents believe Abbott is out of touch with ordinary people, 65 percent find him arrogant, and only 34 percent consider him a capable leader.
 
Given any childcare package will incentivise parental decisions through taxpayer subsidies, and correspondingly discourage other choices, this will be a huge test of public approval.
 
After all, it won’t just need to satisfy the question of whether Abbott is a capable leader, but whether constituents trust that he knows what is best for their families.
 
Unfortunately for Abbott, his leadership may have reached a state where even significant changes to his core policies may no longer suffice to keep him in office.