The Western order that has long underpinned global prosperity is cracking. Not dramatically. Quietly. And nothing feels missing, until everything is.

In this essay, Dr Oliver Hartwich traces the origins of Western order from the Renaissance through the Enlightenment to reveal five interconnected crises now threatening its foundations: fragmenting trade; collapsing alliances; fading Western hegemony; vanishing civic knowledge; and, an AI revolution that will amplify every weakness. Business leaders and citizens alike have become unwitting guardians of this inheritance. When its foundations crumble, the rules we take for granted simply stop working.

Just as the Medici invested in civilisation and created returns measured in centuries, today’s leaders must become Renaissance people in dark times. That means thinking across fields, building what lasts and looking beyond the next quarter and to the next century. Our choice is simple: optimise within decline, or rebuild the foundations that made our prosperity possible.