Prediction markets reveal odds on Iran’s nuclear future, regime change

Dr Eric Crampton
NZ Herlad
26 June, 2025

Not great odds. Late-night “situation monitoring” on Twitter when Israel and America are bombing Iranian nuclear weapons facilities is not ideal for a good night’s sleep.

Possible outcomes seemed to range from a happy and peaceful shift to a more liberal Iranian government, through to serious regional or broader war with a nuclear-armed Iran.

To read the full article on the NZ Herald website, click here.

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