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Dr Bryce Wilkinson ONZM

Senior Fellow

Bryce is a Senior Fellow at The New Zealand Initiative, and also the Director of the Wellington-based economic consultancy firm Capital Economics. Prior to setting this up in 1997 he was a Director of, and shareholder in, First NZ Capital. Before moving into investment banking in 1985, he worked in the New Zealand Treasury, reaching the position of Director. Bryce holds a PhD in economics from the University of Canterbury and was a Harkness Fellow at Harvard University. He is a Fellow of the Law and Economics Association of New Zealand.

Bryce is available for comment on fiscal issues, our poverty, inequality and welfare research. He also has a strong background in public policy analysis including monetary policy, capital markets research and microeconomic advisory work.

Bryce was made an Officer of the New Zealand Order of Merit in the 2025 New Year's honours for his significant contributions to public policy formation and economic research, spanning his influential work at Treasury during New Zealand's major economic reforms and his extensive research on fiscal discipline and regulatory quality.

Phone: +64 4 499 0790

Email: bryce.wilkinson@nzinitiative.org.nz

Recent Work

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Walking the path to the next global financial crisis

New Zealand must prepare for next global financial crisis New Zealand’s economy suffered less damage from the pandemic than analysts expected. But new research warns, however, that just as we are emerging from the COVID-19, a new crisis is already on the horizon. Read more

Dr Bryce Wilkinson ONZM
Research Note
4 November, 2021
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Podcast: The Illusions of History

Dr Bryce Wilkinson and Emeritus Professor Gary Hawke join Ben Craven to discuss Bryce’s latest report, The Illusions of History: How misunderstanding the past jeopardises our future. The trio look at some of the prevailing myths of New Zealand’s economic history, and explain the risks of basing contemporary public policy on inaccurate stories of our past. Read more

Dr Bryce Wilkinson ONZM
Emeritus Professor Gary Hawke
Podcast
14 October, 2021
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Mike Hosking reviews Bryce Wilkinson's NZ Herald article on how misunderstanding the past mars Grant Robertson's economic strategy

Mike Hosking reviews and reads out part of Bryce Wilkinson's article (published in the NZ Herald) "How past illusions and future follies mar Grant Robertson's economic strategy." Hosking calls it today's "must read". In the article on his new report "Illusions of History: How misunderstanding the past jeopardises our future", Bryce warns that the government's economic policy settings risk a repeat of past mistakes. Read more

Dr Bryce Wilkinson ONZM
Newstalk ZB - Mike Hosking Breakfast
22 September, 2021
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Illusions of History: How misunderstanding the past jeopardises our future

Closing his 2020 Budget speech, Finance Minister Grant Robertson looked back to the First and Fourth Labour governments for lessons on how to tackle New Zealand’s current economic challenges. His first history lesson was that the way forward today lay in the “great traditions of the First Labour Government” (1935–49) that “rebuilt New Zealand after the Great Depression” under Prime Minister Michael Joseph Savage. Read more

Dr Bryce Wilkinson ONZM
Research Report
20 September, 2021

Media release: Illusions of History: How misunderstanding the past jeopardises our future

Wellington (Tuesday, 21 September 2021) – The 2.8 percent jump in GDP in the June quarter 2021 does not mean that the government’s economic strategy is sound. In fact, it is dangerous wishful thinking based on a false reading of history, according to a new research report from The New Zealand Initiative. Read more

Dr Bryce Wilkinson ONZM
Media release
20 September, 2021
Wellbeing

Let’s have more focus on performance and less posturing about wellbeing

We seem to be living in a time of shameless posturing about caring for ‘our’ wellbeing by the government, and too many government agencies to list. The posturing reminds me of the saying - in the context of runs on a bank - that if a bank has to proclaim its virtue, it has already lost it. Read more

Dr Bryce Wilkinson ONZM
Insights Newsletter
30 July, 2021
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Another cheer for MBIE

In my book, governments that do not publish a competent cost-benefit assessment justifying their spending and regulatory proposals do not take community wellbeing seriously.(Only if the wellbeing benefits plausibly exceed the costs is the policy likely to benefit the public.) The absence of such an assessment is now common. It suggests that a measure is being imposed on the public for partisan or elitist, paternalistic reasons. Read more

Dr Bryce Wilkinson ONZM
Insights Newsletter
16 July, 2021

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